XRP has failed to stay above $1.34 and is moving closer to a support cluster at $1.26-$1.28 after 2.5% daily loss. Search activity and futures open interest are lower than during the earlier rally, but neither measure can show whether buyers or sellers will control the next move.
The XRP/USD daily chart showed price at $1.3082 on October 17 at 06:46 UTC. Its low of $1.30 left XRP above the $1.26-$1.279 range, where two longer-term moving averages meet a Fibonacci retracement.
The chart has changed in a specific way: $1.34 has shifted from support to resistance. XRP can bounce from the lower range, but it must reclaim $1.34 before that bounce begins to repair the breakdown.
XRP has given up the midpoint of its prior rally
XRP’s latest decline follows a failed attempt to sustain a recovery above $1.34. Price has broken below its rising trendline and the 50-day simple moving average, while a descending resistance line from the measured rally high remains above the market.
That is a weaker setup than during the earlier recovery above $1.34, when XRP was trying to reach the $1.42-$1.43 resistance area. The support range identified in that analysis is now much closer, although the current candle has not reached it.
The Fibonacci grid measures the move from $0.99 to the $1.70 local high. XRP has fallen about 23% from that high and now trades below the 50% retracement at $1.34.
A move back above $1.34 would be the first repair, not a full trend reversal. XRP would still have to deal with the 50-day average, the 38.2% retracement and the descending trendline above.
The next test sits between $1.26 and $1.28
The 200-day SMA stands at $1.279, the 100-day SMA at $1.274 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.26. These are different tools pointing to the same small price area: the averages track longer price trends, while the retracement measures how far XRP has pulled back from its prior advance.
At $1.30, XRP was still about 2.2% above the upper edge of the range and 3.6% above its lower boundary. It is approaching the area, not testing the whole band yet. A brief wick into the range would be less meaningful than a close back above it after a sell-off.
Daily relative strength index, or RSI, stood at 36.07, below the neutral 50 mark and its smoothing line at 44.27. The reading fits the current weak momentum, but it is still above the conventional oversold threshold of 30. RSI alone does not show that sellers are finished.
Follow the price route
- $1.34: The lost 50% retracement is XRP’s first recovery level. Holding back above it would show that the breakdown is losing force.
- $1.26-$1.279: The 61.8% retracement, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA meet here. This is the first area where a more substantial response from buyers would matter.
- $1.14: The 78.6% retracement becomes relevant only if XRP closes below the nearer range and cannot recover it.
- $1.417-$1.427, then $1.53: A sustained recovery would still need to clear the 50-day average, the 38.2% retracement and the falling trendline before XRP could target higher resistance.
Searches peaked before XRP futures exposure did
The worldwide Google Trends series for “xrp” reached its maximum reading of 100 in December 2024 and remained elevated at 91 in January 2025. By October 2026, the reading had fallen to 16, a partial-month result that is 84% below the historical peak.
Futures positioning reached its displayed high later. The open-interest chart shows XRP contracts building to more than $10 billion around July, months after Google searches had already peaked. It later recovered only into the roughly $3 billion-$4 billion area during bursts of activity before returning to about $2.8 billion.
Public search interest and futures positioning do not move in lockstep. Searches surged first, while the largest build-up in derivatives exposure came later. Both are now far below their respective highs, pointing to a cooler market than during XRP’s earlier run without establishing the next price direction.
October’s Google reading is partial and incomplete, while the score is normalized for the selected period and geography. Google Trends does not measure investor numbers, holdings or trades. It cannot show whether people who stopped searching for XRP sold their tokens, held them or added to positions.
Lower futures exposure does not settle the next move
CoinGlass listed XRP futures open interest at approximately $2.80 billion. Its historical chart places the dollar value of outstanding positions well below the earlier peak around $11 billion.
Open interest counts futures contracts that have not been closed. It includes both long and short positions, so a decline cannot identify which side has withdrawn. Because the figure is expressed in dollars, a lower XRP price can reduce reported open interest even when the number of outstanding contracts changes less sharply.
XRP can still rebound from $1.26-$1.28 with lower search interest and lower open interest. A further decline can also occur even if either measure begins to rise. Price behaviour at the support range remains the immediate test.
The support reaction will set the next direction
If XRP reaches $1.26-$1.28 and rebounds, the first test would be $1.34. A daily close above that level, followed by the ability to hold it on a pullback, would carry more weight than a single green candle near support.
Above $1.34, XRP would face $1.417-$1.427, where the 50-day average sits near the 38.2% retracement. The descending trendline remains a further obstacle. Only after those references are recovered would $1.53 come back into focus.
If XRP closes below $1.26 and cannot regain the range, attention would shift to $1.142. A break below that level would leave $0.99, the starting point of the measured rally, as the deeper reference.
Spot volume and contract-denominated open interest would offer a clearer read on participation around that support test than search interest alone.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical indicators and market data are interpretive tools, not guarantees of future price movement.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.
To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.
His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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