Donald Trump’s waiver delays tariffs and sanctions under the new Graham Act, and the order itself sets no end date.
Key Takeaways
- Waiver order sets no end date.
- Rubio’s 60-day review isn’t in the order.
- Waiver follows Trump’s Putin diesel deal.
- Fed meets October 28 after 3.7% CPI.
The 60-day review is Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s: Reuters reported Saturday that he said the president would use up to 60 days to weigh the economic impact. The order signed Friday keeps the waivers in force until the president or Rubio decides further action is appropriate.
The waiver is the second half of a diesel deal. On October 9, Trump announced that Putin had agreed to ship 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel immediately, 500,000 in November and 1 million after that, with 3 million more depending on the state of Russia’s refineries. US diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September. Bitcoin, near $81,600 on Sunday morning and about 35% below its record, now heads into a Fed meeting on October 28 that follows a September rate hike and a 3.7% inflation reading. If more diesel eases fuel costs, that pressure on the Fed could ease too. Nothing yet shows it: Bitcoin barely moved over the weekend.
What the order says, and what it doesn’t
EXECUTIVE ORDER OF OCTOBER 16, 2026 · PARAPHRASED
§ 2(b)
A 100% duty on goods from the five biggest importers of Russian crude oil and gas, if they knowingly make new purchases on or after October 18.
October 18 is the day it would have started to apply.
§ 4(d)
The waivers stay in force until the president or the secretary of state, consulting Treasury and the trade representative, decides further action is appropriate.
No date. The 60 days are Rubio’s, not the order’s.
§ 3
The trade representative monitors Russian oil and gas purchases and must promptly tell the president about anything that might call for further action, including on the waivers.
This is the formal route back to the tariffs.
§ 4(b)
Sanctions imposed under earlier executive orders are untouched.
A pause on the new package, not a rollback.
Source: White House.
The waived package also included a 500% duty on goods from Russia and a 100% duty on the five biggest facilitators of Russian sanctions evasion. Reuters reported that Rubio pointed to India as an example of the complication, because the Graham Act targets not only Russia but the countries that buy its energy. Trump certified to Congress that the waiver serves US national interests. RFE/RL reported criticism from lawmakers of both parties, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it would embolden Putin.
If the 60 days run from Friday, they end around December 15. Rubio didn’t say when the clock starts.
The diesel deal behind it
Treasury issued a general license for Russian diesel on the day of the announcement, reported to run for six months, and Tablet reported that Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban the next day. The volumes are Trump’s own figures, and the largest piece depends on refineries that Ukraine has been striking.
Russian diesel in Trump’s October 9 announcement: 4.8 million tonnes
■ 300,000 immediately
■ 500,000 in November
■ 1,000,000 after that
■ 3,000,000 more, depending on refineries
Tonnes, as stated in Trump’s post. Source: Newsweek.
The US Energy Information Administration’s October outlook, finished on October 1, before the deal, sets the starting point. US retail diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September, and East Coast distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were 32% below their five-year seasonal average. EIA expects them to stay about 20% below the 2021–2025 average through winter. It blames constrained Middle East supply, forecasts Brent crude at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, and says tight diesel markets push crude demand higher as refiners chase more fuel. The next outlook, due November 10, should be the first to include the deal.
The Fed’s Beige Book, published October 14 with information through October 5, found higher oil prices in every district report and fuel surcharges passing costs along supply chains. Firms in several districts expect further price increases as contracts and hedges expire. In the Dallas district, farm contacts said diesel prices had nearly doubled, while most retailers said it hadn’t yet reached selling prices. All of that predates the deal.
How a Russian diesel deal reaches Bitcoin
The link is a chain of reasoning, and each step has a number.
DIESEL
$6.29
a gallon, September average
→
INFLATION
3.7%
September CPI; core 2.6%
→
THE FED
3.75-4.00%
raised Sept 16; meets Oct 28
→
REAL YIELD
2.74%
10-year Treasury, Oct 16
→
BITCOIN
~$81,600
Sunday morning, Oct 18
Diesel is one of the prices pushing inflation up. Dallas Fed contacts named it the most commonly cited cost pressure, and September’s 3.7% headline CPI sits a full point above 2.6% core inflation, which excludes food and energy. The Fed is raising rates against that inflation. Its path sets what Treasuries pay above inflation, the real yield, and Bitcoin pays no yield while that return is available elsewhere. So if more Russian diesel lowers fuel costs, it could ease the pressure on the Fed and on real yields. If the waiver is reversed or the diesel doesn’t arrive, the pressure stays.
That is reasoning, not a measured result. No price or flow figure shows Bitcoin reacting to the waiver. The sections below show where each link stands.
The Fed was already tightening
The middle of that chain was moving before the waiver. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. September’s CPI report, released October 14, showed prices up 3.7% from a year earlier, against 3.4% in August, with core inflation at 2.6%. It was the last inflation reading before the Fed meets on October 27–28.
Real yields were already falling before the waiver. The 10-year real yield, what Treasuries pay above inflation, slid from 2.95% on October 5 to 2.74% at Friday’s close, with four straight daily declines, including on CPI day. Friday’s numbers are not a clean “before” picture: they include a week of reaction to the diesel deal. The 10-year nominal yield was 5.09%, which implies about 2.35% of inflation compensation.
10-year real Treasury yield, October 5–16
Bars start at 2.70%, so the differences look larger than they are. October 12 was a market holiday.
Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16
■ Oct 9: diesel deal announced
■ Oct 14: CPI released
■ Oct 16: close, before the waiver was signed
Source: US Treasury par real yield curve.
What Bitcoin did
Bitcoin changed hands near $81,600 on Sunday (October 18) morning, about 1.5% below a week earlier, in a range of roughly $80,800 to $81,800 over the previous 24 hours, according to exchange data.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $175.7 million on Tuesday, October 13, and lost $261.4 million on Wednesday, October 14, the day of the CPI report. They lost $228.4 million over the week, according to Farside Investors. No price or flow figure ties a move to the waiver itself. The last link in the chain has the reasoning but not yet the reaction.
The dates that settle it
DATEEVENTWHAT IT TESTS
OCT 27–28Fed meeting, decision Oct 28First meeting since the hike and the 3.7% CPI
NOV 3US midterm electionsFuel prices are a campaign issue
NOV 10EIA outlook and October CPIFirst readings after the diesel deal
DEC 8–9Fed meeting with projectionsFalls inside Rubio’s window
~DEC 1560 days from signingIf the clock starts Oct 16
Fed dates from the Federal Reserve calendar.
The first date is October 28, but it can’t show the diesel deal’s effect: that meeting will mostly reflect the 3.7% CPI that came before it. The first readings that could are the EIA outlook and October CPI on November 10. Rubio’s 60 days, if counted from Friday, run past both of those and cover both of the Fed’s remaining meetings this year.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets – crypto first, then everything else.
It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn’t fully understand it – so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can’t properly understand one without the other.
What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it’s happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline – price up, price down, here’s a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn?
He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University – not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That’s probably why he hasn’t stopped.
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