TLDR
- JPMorgan upgraded Intel (INTC) to Neutral from Underweight with an $85 price target.
- INTC closed at $89.85 on Friday, down 6%, and is down 36% from its June peak.
- Intel is still up 143% this year, but a rotation out of chip stocks is weighing on the sector.
- Analyst views are mixed, with an average Hold rating and a $109.06 consensus target.
- CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought about $10 million of stock in August at $95 per share.
Intel (INTC) closed at $89.85 on Friday, down 6% on the day. The stock has dropped 36% from its June peak. That compares with a 20% to 25% decline for the semiconductor sector.
Even so, the stock is up 143% so far this year. Pre-market trading on Monday showed a gain of 4% to $93.31.
JPMorgan upgraded Intel to Neutral from Underweight on Monday. The firm set a price target of $85. That target sits below Friday’s close.
The bank said Intel’s execution in enterprise computing and data centers has improved. It credited the change to CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took over the top job. JPMorgan also pointed to progress in manufacturing yield and advanced packaging.
Why JPMorgan Held Back
The upgrade came with caveats. Since JPMorgan’s Underweight call in November 2022, Intel has trailed several peers. Broadcom and AMD have beaten it by 115% and 148%.
Intel’s share of the x86 server CPU market fell from 77% to 53%. In PC CPUs, it dropped from 81% to 68%. The company expects to lose more server share over the next few quarters.
The foundry business is still small. It barely reached $1 billion in annualized revenue in the first half of 2026. TSMC posted about $150 billion in the same period.
JPMorgan’s 2028 earnings estimates are about 15% above market consensus. Analysts expect Intel to return to profit this year, with earnings of $1.51 per share.
Sector Pressure and Company Risks
Chip stocks fell broadly on Friday. AMD dropped 6%, Broadcom fell 5%, and TSMC lost 2%. The SOX index slid 4%.
Investors are questioning AI infrastructure valuations, financing conditions and how long spending will last. That rotation out of AI chips has hit Intel along with its peers.
There are Intel-specific worries too. TSMC suggested it could support customers if Intel’s advanced packaging ramp falls short. An explosion and fire also hit Intel’s Kiryat Gat facility in Israel.
Other analysts have weighed in recently. Tigress Financial raised its target to $145, citing a partnership with Terafab. Piper Sandler started coverage at Neutral with a $110 target, and TD Cowen kept a Hold with a $115 target.
MarketBeat data shows one Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 27 Hold and two Sell ratings. The average target is $109.06.
Intel’s last earnings report came on July 23. Earnings per share were $0.42 against a $0.21 estimate. Revenue rose 25.2% to $16.13 billion.
The stock trades below its 50-day average of $103.05 and its 200-day average of $101.31. Its one-year range runs from $32.89 to $142.35.
Insiders have shown some confidence. Tan bought 105,263 shares on August 11 at $95. That raised his holdings to 1,314,669 shares.
Robertson Stephens Wealth Management also added 6,305 shares in the third quarter. Its stake is now 32,290 shares. Institutions own 64.53% of the company.
On Monday, Intel was indicated higher in pre-market trading at $93.31, up $3.59, as investors weighed the JPMorgan upgrade.
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