JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Beat Stocks and Gold Over the Next 10 Years

TLDR

• JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin could return 10% a year, compounded, over the next 10 to 15 years.
• That is higher than its forecasts for US large-cap stocks, real estate investment trusts and gold.
• The bank expects Bitcoin’s annual volatility to be about 55%, far above stocks and gold.
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the return estimate may be too low and the volatility estimate too high.
• JPMorgan has not added Bitcoin to its main portfolio models, citing unstable correlations and high volatility.

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JPMorgan Asset Management has forecast that Bitcoin could beat stocks, gold and other traditional investments over the next decade. The bank released the projection in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report on October 19.

JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outperforming U.S. Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade

J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the investment arm of U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase, included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time, projecting a 10% compound annual return over… pic.twitter.com/CMlF2xAgb3

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 20, 2026

It is the first time the bank has included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts.

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Return Forecast

The report projects Bitcoin could earn 10% a year, compounded, over the next 10 to 15 years. That figure is higher than the bank’s outlook for several major asset classes.

JPMorgan forecasts annual compound returns of 7.5% for US large-cap stocks. It expects 8.2% for real estate investment trusts and 5.5% for gold.

The report also puts Bitcoin’s arithmetic average annual return at 20.9%. That number is much higher than the compound figure.

The two measures are different. An arithmetic return is a simple average of yearly results, while a compound return shows how growth builds over time after volatility is taken into account.

JPMorgan expects Bitcoin’s annualized volatility to be about 55%. For comparison, it forecasts 18% for US large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold.

That gap means Bitcoin’s price could swing much more than other assets, even if its long-term return is higher.

Why JPMorgan Is Holding Back on Portfolios

Even with the higher return forecast, JPMorgan has not folded Bitcoin into its main portfolio allocation models. The bank said Bitcoin’s unstable correlations with traditional assets and its high volatility make its role in a diversified portfolio hard to define.

Instead, the firm built a separate framework that looks at Bitcoin next to selected financial assets.

The bank’s broader report also covers traditional investing. It projects annualized returns of 7% for a portfolio made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.

JPMorgan said its assumptions are meant for long-term planning. They are not predictions of short-term market moves.

Bitwise CIO Responds

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan commented on the forecast in an October 20 post on X. He said it shows how views on Bitcoin are changing among institutional investors.

Hougan also said he believes JPMorgan’s estimates may be too cautious. In his view, the projected volatility is too high and the expected returns are too low.

His comments are his own opinion. They are not an additional forecast from JPMorgan.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown through regulated investment products, corporate adoption and new trading infrastructure.

A 10% annual compound return would not guarantee gains every year. Bitcoin can still be affected by global liquidity, monetary policy, investor demand and crypto regulation.

JPMorgan’s October 19 report is part of its 31st annual capital market outlook. It contains the bank’s first formal long-term Bitcoin return forecast.