Bitcoin’s price momentum is being weighed down by a familiar on-chain mechanism: investors who bought in later 2025 are effectively “crowding” a key resistance area near $87,000, according to new analysis from Glassnode. At the same time, inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs appear to be strengthening demand around $80,000, where multiple cost-basis benchmarks and order-book liquidity converge.
The tug-of-war is taking place across two zones. Above, several breakeven levels from different investor cohorts repeatedly cap upside attempts. Below, support is forming as bid liquidity concentrates around the $80,000 psychological threshold and related cost-basis bands.
Key takeaways
- Glassnode says the breakeven for a cohort of Bitcoin buyers from late 2025 is now around $87,700, acting as resistance when BTC trades toward that level.
- A cluster above $87,000 includes the 2026 opening price at $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average near $87,165.
- Bitcoin support around $80,000 is reinforced as ETF-related cost basis and broader market mean levels sit in the same vicinity.
- Glassnode highlights how prior rejections at cost-basis levels have historically coincided with sizable retracements.
Breakeven levels from late-2025 buyers re-emerge as resistance
Glassnode’s research frames the current market as a contest between spot demand and sell pressure from investors who are approaching, or returning to, breakeven. In particular, two groups of holders have previously played a role in preventing BTC/USD from sustaining breakouts when price approached their acquisition cost bases.
In November 2025, Bitcoin fell back from a region above the cost basis of investors whose entry time was roughly between six and 12 months prior. At that moment, Glassnode reported that cohort’s cost basis was about $94,000. Later, when price attempted to push above a trendline near $97,100 in January 2026, that same cost-basis area became resistance, leading to rejection and a slide lower.
A similar pattern shows up with another investor cohort. Glassnode notes that holders who bought one to two years earlier slipped into aggregate loss in February 2026 when BTC lost their cost basis of around $76,900. When BTC tried to rebound in May—briefly finding support just above $82,000—the one-to-two-year cost basis again helped stall further upside.
In both instances, the mechanism is straightforward: when price climbs back toward breakeven, underwater holders have an incentive to sell into strength rather than wait, increasing sell-side supply. Glassnode pointed out that the size of the subsequent pullbacks has differed, but the “rejection at cost basis” pattern has repeated.
“Bitcoin rose to the 6-12 month cost basis in January and then fell by more than a third. It met the 1-2 year cost basis in May and fell by about a quarter,” Glassnode said. “The 1-2 year holders also stepped up their selling into the rally at the start of October.”
Today, Glassnode places the relevant breakeven cost bases at approximately $87,700 for the six-to-12-month cohort and about $99,500 for the one-to-two-year cohort. The immediate implication is that the market may struggle to convert gains into sustained trends until it can absorb selling as price challenges these inventory “checkpoints.”
The $87,000 ceiling: overlapping signals around 2026 levels and a key moving average
Beyond the late-2025 cost-basis figure, Glassnode highlights that the region above $87,000 contains additional technical and calendar-linked reference points. This layering matters because it can increase the likelihood that rally attempts fail if multiple “decision points” cluster together.
The same overhead area includes the 2026 opening price at roughly $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average (SMA) near $87,165. Glassnode also notes that the 20-month trend line has historically preceded new all-time highs once reclaimed as support.
Put simply, the resistance ceiling isn’t a single number—it’s a zone made more resistant by several independent metrics converging at nearly the same level. For traders, that can translate into higher probability of mean reversion (chop) if price repeatedly returns to that band and fails to hold it.
ETF cost basis and market mean strengthen bid liquidity near $80,000
Lower in the chart, Glassnode draws attention to a different set of on-chain and flow-related anchors clustered around $80,000. The analysis ties ETF-related cost basis to a broader “support stack” that includes both ETF-specific benchmarks and the cost structure of the wider market.
According to Glassnode, the spot ETF cost basis is currently about $81,500. The firm also cites Bitcoin’s “true market mean”—its estimate of average acquisition cost across secondary markets—at roughly $77,500. Below that, it places the breakeven for short-term holders (wallets holding BTC for up to six months without selling) around $74,600.
While these levels are different, their proximity helps explain why $80,000 is receiving special attention. Glassnode describes the $80,000 area as a psychological magnet for bid liquidity across exchange order books.
“The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play,” Glassnode commented.
This framing matters for how investors might think about risk: if BTC can hold above the ETF cost-basis neighborhood, the market has multiple reasons to attract bids. If it loses that overlap zone, however, the next sell-pressure or liquidation-related pocket could become more relevant around the nearby $78,000 mean.
What to watch next as on-chain resistance meets ETF-supported demand
The near-term battleground is likely to remain centered on how BTC handles the overlap of cost-basis resistance above $87,000 versus the overlapping support stack around $80,000. Glassnode’s history of earlier rejections at similar cost-basis levels suggests rallies may struggle if price repeatedly returns to breakeven zones dominated by patient sellers.
For market participants, the key question is whether ETF-supported demand can keep BTC above the $80,000 magnet long enough for it to work through the $87,000 resistance zone—especially the area compounded by the 2026 opening level and the 20-month SMA. Until that changes, expect the market to react sharply to each attempt to cross these cost-basis thresholds.
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