Could U.S. Midterms Trigger Another Bitcoin (BTC) Price Selloff?

TLDR

• Bitcoin’s historical bear-market lows occurred after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 U.S. midterm elections.
• Bitcoin recovered roughly 41% from its July low, creating a different setup ahead of November 3.
• Analyst Ali Martinez identified $73,000 as a possible support level if another Bitcoin correction develops.
• Lookonchain reported a $327 million Bitcoin transfer to Binance and Deribit, raising questions about potential selling pressure.
• Traders are watching liquidity around 79,500–80,600 as Bitcoin approaches the U.S. elections.

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Bitcoin (BTC) price faces renewed downside warnings ahead of the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, as analysts compare past declines with this year’s earlier recovery. A large exchange transfer and nearby trading levels have added to attention around the $80,000 mark.

Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Midterms After an Early Recovery

Bitcoin fell to $57,850 on July 1, about 125 days before election day. By October 22, it traded near $81,455, roughly 41% above that low. Previous midterm years followed a different timeline, with major market lows arriving after voters cast ballots.

Bitcoin reached those lows in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. The dates came approximately 71, 38, and 13 days after their respective elections. The earlier low in 2026 leaves open whether the same timing will appear again.

Past Election Cycles Offer Mixed Evidence

Analyst Ali Martinez cited Bitcoin drops of 72%, 65%, 52% and 27% after the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. However, a review of monthly post-election returns found gains after the first two votes, showing how results differ by measurement period.

Martinez reported fourth-quarter losses of 16.7% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. Bitcoin gained 391% during the final quarter of 2010. The figures show no consistent quarterly result, while broader market conditions complicate comparisons.

Whale Transfers and Bitcoin Liquidity Draw Attention

Blockchain tracker Lookonchain reported that a whale sent 4,000 BTC, worth about $327 million, to Binance and Deribit within five hours. Exchange deposits can precede trading, but the transfers alone do not establish that the holder sold those coins.

A whale deposited 4,000 $BTC ($327M) into #Binance and #Deribit over the past 5 hours.https://t.co/nTU0pKG2z3https://t.co/4KBTz5EDxP pic.twitter.com/v43rwx2T3T

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 23, 2026

Trader Ted Pillows identified a cluster of short-side liquidity between $79,500 and $80,600. He raised the possibility of a dip below $80,000 followed by a reversal. A recent Bitcoin price report likewise identified $80,000 as a closely watched support level.

Traders Weigh $73,000 Against Stock Weakness

Martinez identified $73,000 as the average purchase price of recently acquired Bitcoin, according to his on-chain estimate. He said a decline toward that level could test buyer demand. His forecast remains conditional, with no certainty that past midterm moves will repeat in November.

U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded $526.6 million in net inflows on October 19, according to recent Bitcoin ETF data. Those purchases followed earlier withdrawals and did not produce a sustained price rally.

QQQ fell 23% between September and December 2018 and dropped 17% before the 2022 election. It gained 17% ahead of the 2014 vote. More recently, Bitcoin and QQQ each lost about 6% over 30 days, while their 90-day returns were 26% and 3%.