Iraq thanked Iran for allowing its tankers to navigate the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts. The US x Iran ceasefire by April 7 market sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Allowing Iraqi tankers through signals a slight de-escalation between Iran and Iraq, but ceasefire odds remain low. The April 7 ceasefire market dropped to 1% YES, showing deep pessimism. Odds for April 15 are at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market shows 18% YES, down from 24% a day ago.
The volume indicates cautious engagement. Combined face value trades at $3.7M daily, with $430K USDC changing hands. It takes $12K to shift the price by 5 points on April 7, making the market susceptible to large orders. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, suggesting traders are hedging against unexpected developments.
The safe passage of Iraqi tankers is a minor signal in a sea of uncertainty. Traders might see it as a potential thaw, but odds reflect skepticism. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 offers a 100x payout if resolved, but belief in a near-term ceasefire is low. Dramatic changes would be needed in the next four days for these odds to make sense.
Watch intermediaries like Oman and Qatar for any movement towards talks. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio or CENTCOM updates could also influence these markets.
Markets Impacted
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