US forces entering Iran by April 30 now 86% likely after colonel’s rescue

A U.S. Air Force colonel’s rescue from Iran confirms ground operations. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is at 86% YES, up from 62% a day ago.

The colonel’s extraction has pushed up the odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86% YES. This jump from 62% follows confirmation of special operations personnel involved in the mission. The December 31 market is at 90.5% YES, up from 72% yesterday, indicating a growing belief in U.S. ground operations in Iran.

The April 30 odds surged with $4.16M in USDC trading daily. The market is robust, needing $85K to shift the price by 5 points. A 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, from 78% to 83%, likely came from the news confirmation.

This suggests more than a tactical operation; it points to a sustained U.S. and Israeli military presence in Iran. Pentagon officials mention “target saturation,” but special forces on the ground show deeper commitment. At 14¢ per YES share, betting on no U.S. forces by April 30 requires belief in imminent de-escalation — unlikely given current trends.

Further market movement depends on upcoming Pentagon statements and Congressional War Powers discussions. Hegseth’s next briefing or an IRGC counter-operation could sharply shift odds.

Markets Impacted

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