U.S. and Israeli officials aim to weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities before ending military actions. The odds of a ceasefire by April 30 stand at 17.5% YES.
Despite talks of de-escalation, markets remain cautious. The April 7 market is at 1.1% YES, showing little faith in a quick resolution. The April 15 market has dropped to 6.5% YES from 8%. The April 30 market has risen slightly to 17.5% YES, suggesting some hope for diplomatic progress.
The May 31 market trades at 36.5% YES, indicating more optimism for a resolution. The biggest increase in odds is between April 30 and May 31, with a 19-point rise, hinting at potential diplomatic developments.
Trading data shows a 24-hour face value of $3.76M, with $430K in USDC traded. Liquidity varies; it takes $12,367 to shift the April 7 price by 5 points, while $40,022 is needed for April 15. The April 30 market saw a 2-point spike, indicating trader interest in short-term events.
Although the situation suggests a diplomatic shift, the lack of confirmed talks tempers optimism. A YES share for an April 30 ceasefire costs 18¢, paying $1 if successful — a 5.6x return. This bet hinges on believing in imminent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or moves by Oman or Qatar. Secretary of State Rubio’s involvement or a change in Trump’s rhetoric could signal market shifts.
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