Descending Channel Broken – A Rally Could Be Next

Avalanche is starting to get back on people’s radar, and a recent chart shared by crypto analyst ZAYK Charts points to a possible breakout. The idea is pretty simple: AVAX has been stuck in a long downtrend, and now it’s finally pushing up against the level that could change everything.

After months of moving lower, this isn’t just another small bounce. The AVAX price is now testing a key area that could decide whether the trend flips or continues dragging lower.

$AVAX Breaking out of Descending Channel 📈

Bullish Momentum Building 🚀

Potential Big Move Ahead✍️#AVAX #AVAXUSDT pic.twitter.com/tZ5v0B7XL3

— ZAYK Charts (@ZAYKCharts) April 6, 2026

A downtrend that’s being put to the test

We took a look at the bigger picture, and it’s been a rough stretch. Since around September 2025, the AVAX price has been moving inside a clear descending channel, printing lower highs and lower lows the entire time.

That’s been the story for months, but now things are getting interesting. The AVAX price is pushing right up against the top of that channel. This is the same area that has rejected price multiple times before, so it’s not an easy level to break.

If buyers manage to push through, though, it could change the entire outlook. There’s even a projection floating around that points to a move toward $19 if a breakout holds. That’s a big jump from current levels, and it shows just how important this zone is.

Daily AVAX price chart analysis.

Even with the recent push, the AVAX price hasn’t fully cleared resistance yet. There’s a key area around $10.20 to $10.50 that needs to be broken first. That level lines up with the 100-day moving average, which has been acting like a ceiling.

There’s also a bigger level around $12.55 that comes into play if price keeps climbing. Until that gets reclaimed, it’s hard to say the trend has fully turned around.

Momentum is improving, though. RSI has moved back into a more neutral zone, which gives the AVAX price room to move higher without running into immediate exhaustion.

AVAX short-term strength is starting to show

Looking at the shorter timeframe, things actually look a bit more encouraging. The AVAX price has started to reclaim some key levels and is now trading back above a short-term moving average.

There have also been a few breaks in structure recently, which is a sign that the downtrend is losing some control. It’s not a full reversal yet, but it’s a step in that direction.

4-hour AVAX price chart analysis.

Volume has also picked up during the latest move higher, which helps support the idea that buyers are stepping in. At the same time, momentum is getting a bit stretched in the short term, so a brief pause wouldn’t be surprising before the next move.

On-chain data shows signs of life in the market

Glassnode data shows there are early signs that interest in AVAX is starting to come back. Market cap has been climbing gradually over the past week, moving from around $3.70 billion to close to $3.94 billion.

This kind of steady increase usually points to accumulation. It’s not a sudden rush of buyers, but more of a slow return of capital. That’s often how larger moves begin. That said, it’s still early. The AVAX price isn’t being driven by strong inflows yet, so this move hasn’t fully taken off.

Another thing worth keeping in mind is how far the AVAX price has fallen. It’s still down more than 93% from its all-time high, which puts it in a pretty extreme position.

At this stage, assets tend to go one of two ways. They either stay weak, or they start building a recovery base. Right now, the slow improvement in price and market cap is leaning toward a recovery, but it still needs confirmation.

The fact that the drawdown is slowly improving is a positive sign. It shows that the worst of the selling pressure may already be behind.

The AVAX price levels that matter 

Everything now comes down to a few key levels. On the upside, the AVAX price needs to break above the $10.20 to $10.50 zone. That’s the first real hurdle. If it gets through that, the next level to watch is around $12.55. Clearing that would go a long way in flipping sentiment.

On the downside, support around $8.20 to $8.50 needs to hold. That level has been defended multiple times, so losing it would weaken the current setup. If the price drops below $7.50, the outlook starts to turn more bearish again.

CoinCodex’s 1-month AVAX price prediction puts the token around $9.31. That’s very close to its current level, hinting at a steadier, range-bound move over the next few weeks as traders wait for a clear breakout.

What comes next for Avalanche

Right now, the AVAX price is at one of those moments where things could go either way. The downtrend is being tested, and there are early signs that buyers are stepping back in. But the breakout still needs to happen. Until those resistance levels are cleared, this is still just a setup.

If the AVAX price pushes through and holds above the channel, things could change quickly, and much higher targets come into play. If not, it could fall back into the same pattern it’s been stuck in for months.

Either way, this is a key moment, and the next move will likely set the tone for what comes next.