US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire before Trump’s deadline

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before President Trump’s deadline. The ceasefire by April 15 market is now at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

## Market reaction

The April 15 ceasefire market hit 100% YES from 12% the day prior. The April 30 market also reached 100% YES, up from 26% in the same timeframe. Longer-term horizons like May 31 and June 30 show near-certainty of ceasefire continuation, with traders pricing in sustained compliance.

The regime fall by June 30 market dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. The ceasefire signals Iran’s willingness to negotiate, which has cooled speculation around regime collapse. Traders appear to be pricing in the leadership’s ability to maintain control through this diplomatic period.

## Why it matters

Trading volume hit $1.39M in actual USDC on the April 15 market alone. A 24-point spike occurred at 10:34 PM, moving odds from 67% to 90% in moments. The order book on the regime fall market is thin: $10K can swing odds by 5 points, making it vulnerable to large orders.

The ceasefire agreement was reported by a Tier 3 source. Markets reflect near-total confidence in the short-term hold, but the sourcing quality leaves room for a correction if details don’t hold up.

## What to watch

At 8.5% YES, betting on regime collapse by June 30 pays $1 for every 8.5¢, an 11.8x return if it resolves YES.

The Islamabad talks scheduled for April 10 are the next catalyst. Confirmation of U.S. participation could lock in these odds or trigger a repricing. Watch for operational language shifts from CENTCOM or unexpected moves by Iran’s proxies.

## API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.