BlackRock buys $505M in Bitcoin amid US-Iran conflict

BlackRock purchased $505.7 million in Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust, and the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, are at 38% YES, up from 34% a week ago.

The purchase is part of $3.1 billion in Bitcoin acquisitions by BlackRock since the US-Iran conflict began, bringing its total holdings to $59.31 billion. A buy of this size suggests institutional investors are treating Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical instability. That accumulation also makes it less likely Bitcoin dips to $60,000 in April, though that scenario hasn’t been ruled out by the market.

The Bitcoin $100,000 market has a daily face value of $5,255 and $1,905 in actual USDC traded. It takes $8,932 to move the odds by 5 points, which means the market is relatively thick and not easily pushed around by small trades.

At 38¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000 by end of 2026, a 2.63x return. BlackRock’s continued buying at this scale is the kind of concrete institutional commitment that directly affects supply dynamics.

Watch for further ETF inflows and any statements from major asset managers or regulatory shifts that could move Bitcoin’s price. Geopolitical developments around the US-Iran conflict are also worth tracking, given BlackRock’s buying pattern since it began.

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