US military expands Iran blockade to include contraband munitions, weapons

The US military has widened its blockade around Iran, now targeting contraband such as munitions and weapons. Trump’s announcement to lift the Hormuz blockade by May 31 is at 83% YES, holding steady from 24 hours ago.

The expansion makes it less likely Trump announces a lifting soon. The market for Trump’s blockade announcement by April 19 sits at 15.0% YES, up slightly from 16%. The Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by April 30 holds at 55.5% YES.

$56,702 in USDC was traded across blockade-related markets. Moving the price by 5 points requires $250 to $1,711 depending on the market, a moderate barrier for retail traders but not for larger players. The largest recent move was a 24-point spike in the April 17 market, signaling volatility.

The blockade expansion is a shift in strategy, not just scope. It complicates any near-term resolution, particularly with Iran labeling it piracy. With Trump’s May 31 deadline at 83%, traders are pricing in a drawn-out conflict. Buying YES at 15.0¢ pays $1, a 4.2x return if Trump surprises with diplomatic progress.

Watch for CENTCOM operations or statements around April 19. Trump’s rhetoric and Iranian responses will move these markets.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.