China assures US it won’t send weapons to Iran during ceasefire

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced that China assured the US it will not send weapons to Iran during the current ceasefire. The odds for the US-Iran ceasefire holding through April 22 are at 16.5% YES, up from 20% yesterday.

The April 22 market saw a modest uptick after Hegseth’s statement, while longer-term markets price in higher confidence: April 30 at 38.5% YES and May 31 at 58.5% YES. The 16-point gap between April 22 and April 30 suggests traders expect diplomatic progress to extend the ceasefire beyond its current terms.

Volume on the April 22 market is $350,399 in USDC traded, with $38,483 needed to move odds by 5 points. The US Declaration of War market fell to 7.5% YES, consistent with the broader shift toward de-escalation pricing.

China’s assurance removes one source of risk, but the market is still parsing diplomatic language. Without concrete progress like scheduled talks or intermediary actions, sentiment could reverse quickly. Buying YES at 16.5¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire holds past April 22, a 4.5x return.

Watch for updates from Islamabad negotiations and any change in rhetoric from Trump or Rubio. The next Pentagon briefing could also shift ceasefire odds depending on how the US frames its strategic outlook.

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