Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress on April 14, 2026, amid sexual misconduct allegations, resolving the “Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31” market at
With 45 days remaining before the resolution date, the market locked at 100% YES after official confirmation of his departure. Polymarket traders expect no retraction or reversal given the severity of the allegations and the speed of the political fallout.
The resignation followed a high-profile ethics inquiry. Odds had been climbing as prominent politicians called for accountability, and previous prediction market activity showed traders pricing in the growing likelihood of his exit. Swalwell’s departure fulfills the market criteria and creates a vacancy that Democratic leadership must now address during a difficult electoral cycle.
At 100% YES, the market offers no remaining upside. The confirmed resignation removes all uncertainty. Attention now turns to California politics and the special election to fill Swalwell’s seat. Ethics scandals like this one can move prediction markets from open questions to resolved contracts within days once official action is taken.
The next signals to watch: whether California Governor Gavin Newsom schedules a special election and any statements from the House Ethics Committee on their findings. Both will shape the immediate political dynamics in Swalwell’s district.
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