Iran agrees to keep Strait of Hormuz open

Trump claims Iran will never close the Strait of Hormuz again. The odds of the US lifting its blockade by May 31 now sit at 90.5% YES.

The market for lifting the blockade by April 19 saw a modest bump, now at 26.5% YES. The April 17 market remains low at 8.5%. The 9-point gap between April 17 and April 19 suggests traders expect a possible catalyst within those two days, but the real weight is on May 31, where a 64-point spread separates the near-term and late-May contracts.

The US-Iran ceasefire breach market moved sharply in the other direction. Odds for a breach by April 21 dropped to 9% YES, down from 33% a week ago. Trump’s statement is being read as a de-escalation signal, and traders are pricing a ceasefire breach as much less likely.

The permanent peace deal market tells a different timing story. Odds for a deal by April 22 are at 41.5% YES, but jump to 82.5% by June 30. Traders expect talks to drag on for weeks, not days.

Daily USDC volume on the Hormuz blockade announcement contract is $5,868, which is moderate liquidity. It takes $3,730 to move the market 5 points, so there’s decent resistance to quick swings. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike early this morning.

Trump’s statement is heavy on rhetoric and light on specifics. At 90.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31, a 1.22x return. That bet requires a real shift in US-Iran relations, which is far from guaranteed given recent negotiation failures.

Watch for Trump or White House confirmations, CENTCOM operations reports, or Iranian state media updates. Concrete actions will make or break this market.

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