Netanyahu agrees to temporary Lebanon ceasefire at Trump’s request

Netanyahu announced a temporary ceasefire with Lebanon, initiated at Donald Trump’s request. The market for Israel suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 now sits at 96% YES, up from 87% a day ago.

The ceasefire moved the Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive market sharply. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire market remains unchanged, which makes sense since the truce doesn’t include Hezbollah. The biggest jump in the suspension market was a 28-point spike on April 17, likely driven by traders pricing in faster diplomatic progress.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume is $339,785. It takes $25,577 to move the April 30 market by 5 percentage points, a moderate level of liquidity. The 28-point single-day spike suggests active trader interest and possible institutional participation.

The ceasefire is temporary and excludes Hezbollah, which limits what it actually resolves. A YES share at 96¢ pays $1 if the market resolves, so the upside is thin relative to the risk. For a broader resolution, Netanyahu’s stated plans to address rocket and drone threats are the key variable.

Watch for official statements from the Israeli Defense Forces or new diplomatic meetings that could affect the suspension timeline. Specific triggers: announcements from Netanyahu or IDF spokespersons, and any developments from the planned White House summit.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.