US forces turn back 23 vessels to Iran, reinforcing Hormuz blockade

US forces turned back 23 vessels to Iran, reinforcing a naval blockade. The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 is at 59.5%, down from 60% yesterday.

The blockade is part of Operation Epic Fury. The April 30 market dropped 10 points in a single day, with traders pricing in a longer timeline for resolution. The May 31 market holds steady at 77%, suggesting traders expect a resolution sometime in May rather than April.

Volume across the combined markets is $32,234 in USDC traded. Only $354 is required to move the April 30 market by 5 points, meaning thin liquidity leaves the contract exposed to sharp swings from relatively small trades.

Turning back 23 vessels in a single enforcement action signals a shift toward sustained economic pressure rather than a short-term show of force. That complicates any near-term return to normal shipping. A YES position on the April 30 contract costs 59.5¢, paying out at 1.98x if the blockade is lifted — essentially a bet on rapid diplomatic progress within two weeks.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM and the IRGC. Any mention of lifting restrictions or easing enforcement would be the clearest signal for movement in these contracts.

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