Iran military dismisses foreign minister’s Hormuz reopening claims amid tensions

Iran’s military slammed its own Foreign Minister over Strait of Hormuz reopening claims, and the odds for Iranian military action by April 30 remain at 100% YES on Polymarket.

The market for Iran striking a country by April 30 hasn’t moved from 100% YES. With 12 days left, traders are pricing in certainty of some form of military action.

The market for UK warships passing through the Strait dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. The decline followed the IRGC’s public dismissal of the Foreign Minister’s statement, and traders are pricing in continued tension rather than any near-term easing.

Trading volume on these markets tells its own story. The Strait of Hormuz market trades $1,412 USDC per day, with only $304 in depth to move prices 5 points. That thin liquidity means small trades can cause outsized price swings, as a 2-point spike at 4:25 PM yesterday showed.

The intra-Iranian discord points to a fractured chain of command, which raises the risk of miscalculation. A YES share in the warships market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if UK warships transit the Strait by April 30, a potential 11.76x return. That bet requires believing in either a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or a misstep that forces military necessity.

Watch for further IRGC public statements or unusual military maneuvers in the coming days. Any new development could move these thin markets fast.

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