Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, contradicts foreign minister’s open claim

Iran’s military and government are publicly contradicting each other over the Strait of Hormuz: the IRGC declared it closed while the Foreign Minister claimed it remains open. Trump held Situation Room talks as Iran took aggressive maritime actions, and the market for Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran by April 21 dropped to 15.5% YES, down from 38% just 24 hours ago.

The April 21 market fell 22.5 points in a day. Traders are pricing in Iran’s maritime posturing, the IRGC’s hardline stance, and the repositioning of US air defense systems. The market now sits at 15.5% YES, a level that implies deep skepticism about any near-term resolution.

The diplomatic meeting location odds moved in the same direction. The probability of no qualifying meetings occurring by June 30 rose to 7.1% YES, a small increase but worth noting because the market is thin: it takes only $462 to move it 5 points, meaning any real news could cause large swings.

The potential for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 also looks unlikely at current prices. Odds dropped to 19.5% YES, down from 40% a day earlier. The IRGC’s aggressive moves and Ghalibaf’s threats of retaliation are driving trader doubt about any de-escalation path.

Given the source tier, this information should be treated cautiously but not dismissed. Buying YES at 15.5¢ offers a potential 6.45x return if resolved by April 21, but the current geopolitical situation makes this a high-risk position.

Watch for statements from the Pentagon or IRGC that could shift these markets. Any confirmation of diplomatic meetings or concrete de-escalation steps would likely move prices. Trump’s next public remarks or tweets will shape near-term expectations.

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