Iranian forces maintain readiness amid US peace talks, says parliament speaker

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared Iranian armed forces remain “ready” amid ongoing US peace talks. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sit at 25.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.

Market reaction

Ghalibaf’s statement coincided with a sharp decline in the April 22 peace deal market. The April 30 market also fell, now at 46% YES. The term structure shows traders expect a major catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 21-point jump within that window.

Trading volume at $1,644,301 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes $9,404 to move the April 22 market 5 percentage points, which points to real liquidity. The most notable single price move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM, likely a large sell order reacting to the news.

Why it matters

Ghalibaf’s emphasis on military readiness signals that de-escalation is not imminent. Combined with US military posturing and mutual distrust, the chances of a quick diplomatic breakthrough look slim. At 19.5¢, a YES share for an April 22 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 5.13x return. That bet requires belief in an unexpected diplomatic leap within four days.

What to watch

Any official announcements from Trump or Iranian leaders, especially regarding concrete steps toward a deal. A surprise agreement or the naming of a mediator could shift odds fast.

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