Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, complicating US blockade end

Iran’s Vice President declared the country’s commitment to defending national interests, including control over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing down the probability of Trump announcing the end of the US blockade by May 31 to 72.5% YES, down from 90% yesterday.

Market reaction

Odds on a US blockade lift by May 31 dropped 12 points in a single session. The April 19 deadline for a potential blockade lift collapsed to 10.2% YES, down from 28% yesterday.

In the Trump Iran Demands (April) market, the lack of movement suggests traders see little chance of sanctions relief this month. The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement market fell from 50% to 36.8% YES, as Tehran’s rhetoric points toward a hardline position.

Why it matters

Iran’s sovereignty claims over the Strait directly complicate any negotiated end to the US blockade. The simultaneous drop in the uranium enrichment agreement odds, from 50% to 28%, suggests traders read the Vice President’s statement as a signal that Tehran is unlikely to make concessions on either front before month’s end.

What to watch

The Hormuz blockade market trades $9,914 in daily USDC volume, but it takes only $1,419 to move the price 5 points, meaning a single large order could cause sharp swings. The uranium enrichment market is even thinner: $34,430 in daily volume, but just $74 moves the odds 5 points. At 22¢, buying YES on the uranium agreement pays 4.5x if it resolves, but with 12 days left and no visible diplomatic progress, that price reflects deep skepticism. Watch for statements from CENTCOM or any diplomatic movement out of Islamabad.

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