US-Iran draft proposes 15-year uranium enrichment suspension

A new U.S.-Iran draft proposal includes a 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment. The market for Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 sits at 35.3% YES, down from 50% a day ago.

Market reaction

The proposal’s terms, including IAEA supervision and changes to uranium stockpiles, sparked interest but haven’t convinced traders of a full agreement by month’s end. The enrichment market dropped 4 points at 5:27 PM. Traders appear skeptical about a comprehensive deal, even with Oman and other regional mediators involved.

The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands like oil sanction relief is tracked in the sanctions market at 37.5% YES, down from 62% yesterday. The decline suggests traders are waiting for concrete signals, such as a formal White House announcement or a statement from Trump.

Why it matters

The enrichment agreement market trades $82,275 in face value daily, but actual USDC traded is $34,430. It would take just $74 to move the price 5 points, which means a single trader could swing the market. The largest single move was a 6-point drop in the sanctions market, showing traders react sharply to any news but remain cautious.

The draft proposal hasn’t changed the fundamental deadlock. Iran’s enrichment rights and U.S. sanctions remain contentious. Traders aren’t fully convinced by the proposal’s potential, possibly because the sourcing is primarily social media and aggregator reports rather than official channels.

What to watch

YES shares at 35.3¢ pay $1 if resolved, a 3.57x return. This bet depends on the draft’s terms evolving into a formal agreement within 12 days.

Watch for White House statements or an IAEA announcement on inspection agreements. Trump’s next social media post or a leaked communique could move the odds sharply.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.