Bitcoin traded firmly last week, extending its seven-day rally to nearly 9%.
The move came amid fresh macroeconomic data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday, which showed March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 3.3%, slightly below the 3.4% forecast, offering limited but notable relief to markets.
Even so, inflation remained elevated, marking its highest level since May 2024, underscoring persistent price pressures across the economy.
Market outlooks have also shifted, with expectations pointing to a prolonged period of tighter financial conditions. Analysts increasingly anticipate that the Federal Reserve could delay rate cuts until 2026, reinforcing a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Within this macro backdrop, Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects a balance of competing forces. On one hand, elevated inflation tends to strengthen the appeal of scarce assets like BTC as a hedge against currency debasement. On the other hand, delayed monetary easing typically supports higher yields and a stronger dollar, factors that can weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
 
From a technical standpoint, analyst Darkfost of CryptoQuant noted on Monday that Bitcoin inflows have dropped to levels last seen in 2020, pointing to a market that is largely in a holding pattern.
According to him, despite the broader macro backdrop remaining uncertain, making it difficult for investors to take strong directional positions, there are a few signs of panic selling. Data from Binance, the leading exchange by liquidity and reserves, shows that BTC inflows have fallen sharply, with the 30-day moving average now sitting around 3,998 BTC. This marks a more than six-year low, aligning with levels observed during 2020.
This steep decline highlights a clear behavioral shift where investors are not rushing to move their holdings onto exchanges to sell. Instead, they appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, effectively reducing near-term selling pressure.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s recent pullback has pushed it into what analyst Ali Martinez describes as an “extreme pain zone,” signaling heightened stress across the market.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) 0.8 band is often viewed as the market’s “average receipt”, a level that reflects the aggregate cost basis of participants. According to Martinez, this threshold, currently around $43,647, points to near-total seller exhaustion.
“When the market price drops below the average cost basis (the Realized Price) and hits this 0.8 band, the ‘ tourists’ have already left. Only high-conviction holders remain.” He stated.
He further pointed out that major powers, such as whales, could purposely raise prices in those areas to create liquidations and build momentum without injecting significant new capital.
At press time, BTC was trading at $74,825, reflecting a 1.31% drop in the past 24 hours.
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