China’s support for Iran dims prospects of Trump visit by April 30

A report on China’s support for Iran’s regime has traders skeptical about a Trump visit to China. The odds of Trump visiting China by April 30 sit at 0.9% YES, down from 2% a week ago.

China’s role as an enabler of Iran’s war efforts is weighing on international diplomacy markets. For the Trump visit to China market, the May 31 odds remain high at 83.5% YES, though bearish sentiment has ticked up on potential geopolitical fallout. A delay beyond May is possible, with June 30 odds at 90% YES.

In the US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations market, the “no qualifying meeting by June 30, 2026” contract has risen slightly to 3.7% YES. With Iran’s ties to China under scrutiny, finding a neutral venue for talks gets harder.

The Trump visit market trades $76,392 in USDC daily, while the US-Iran diplomatic meeting market moves only $1,599. The Trump market requires $10,680 to shift the price 5 points, compared to just $462 for a similar move in the US-Iran market, making the latter far more susceptible to single-trader swings.

A YES share at 0.9¢ pays $1 if Trump visits China by April 30, a 111x return. But with only 12 days left, traders would need evidence of an imminent visit to justify the bet.

Watch for White House announcements on summit dates or scheduling changes. Trump’s social media posts and any diplomatic moves by China or Iran toward or away from each other could shift these contracts quickly.

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