Protests erupt in Lima as López Aliaga alleges fraud in Peru’s vote count

Protests have erupted in Lima as Rafael López Aliaga alleges fraud in Peru’s presidential vote count, and his Polymarket odds of winning the 2026 election have dropped to 9.5% YES, down from 18% a week ago.

Market reaction

The market trades $183,146/day in face value but only $17,302 in actual USDC, a gap that suggests headline volume overstates real conviction. It takes $10,236 to move the price 5 points, so the market isn’t particularly easy to swing with small bets. The near-halving of his odds in one week tracks directly to his unverified fraud claims.

Why it matters

The EU election observation mission hasn’t reported any evidence of fraud. That disconnect between López Aliaga’s allegations and the lack of corroboration from official monitors appears to be dragging his odds down. Candidates who make fraud claims that go unsubstantiated tend to lose credibility with both voters and bettors, and the market at 9.5% YES reflects that pattern.

What to watch

At 9.5% YES, a winning bet on López Aliaga pays 9.5x on a 10.5¢ position. Taking that bet requires believing the protests can translate into durable political support despite the current evidence gap. The key catalysts from here are electoral tribunal responses, any official changes to the vote count, and whether a formal fraud investigation materializes. Movement on any of those fronts would likely reprice the market quickly.

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