US naval blockade halts shipping through Strait of Hormuz amid Iran conflict

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is stalled, according to ship tracking data. The market for whether fewer than 10 ships will transit the strait between April 13-19 is at 0.4% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

The US naval blockade, part of the US-Iran conflict, has effectively halted nearly all shipping traffic through the strait. The market predicting 80 ships will transit on any day by April 30 has fallen to 30.5% YES, down from 51% a day ago. Vessel movement remains severely constrained despite recent ceasefire agreements.

The fewer-than-10-ships market by April 19 remains thin, with only $14 actual USDC traded daily. It takes just $12 to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest recent move was a modest 2-point spike at 4:25 AM, indicating low trading activity. The April 30 market, by contrast, trades $16,360 in actual USDC daily, with a 10-point drop at 5:48 PM reflecting significant trader repositioning.

For traders, the blockade looks entrenched. The probability of reaching 80 transits by the end of April is low unless a major diplomatic breakthrough occurs. At 22.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.4x return. That outcome requires rapid de-escalation or a strategic shift.

Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or diplomatic moves by Russia and China that could signal a change in the blockade’s status. Either would likely move market expectations and trader positions quickly.

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