Oil prices jump 7% as Iran tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices jumped over 7% after Iran refused negotiations and tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude Oil reaching $160 in April sits at 1.4% YES, unchanged despite the volatile backdrop.

Market reaction

The WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April contract remains at 1.4% YES. A 7% surge in oil prices has not moved the odds, likely because traders view $160 as too far from current levels to reach this month. The market’s face value of daily trading volume is $72,164, but actual USDC traded is only $704, making it extremely thin. The largest recorded move was a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, showing how easily a single order can jolt the contract.

Why it matters

Crude oil predictions for June are also drawing attention, with markets pricing the probability of WTI reaching $90 by end of June. No active trades are recorded on that contract yet, suggesting traders are waiting for clearer signals. Prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz would support higher price targets across both timeframes.

The order book on the WTI April contract is shallow: just $1,655 is needed to move the price 5 points. A single large order could swing the odds meaningfully, leaving the contract exposed to headline-driven moves while the geopolitical situation stays unstable.

What to watch

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22, creating a concrete deadline for potential escalation. Buying YES at 1.4¢ is a speculative bet on a drastic price move that would only pay off if tensions escalate well beyond current levels.

Watch for developments around the Strait of Hormuz and any announcements from OPEC+, the US government, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, or JP Morgan, all of which could shift market expectations quickly.

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