Iranian MP calls US talks “meaningless,” peace deal doubts rise

Iranian MP Mahmoud Nabavian called US talks “meaningless and harmful,” casting doubt on any peace deal by April 22. The April 22 market now sits at 19.5% YES, down sharply from 40% yesterday.

Nabavian is a hardliner in the delegation, and his comments drove the April 22 market down over 20 points in 24 hours. The April 30 market dropped to 37.5% YES from 61%. Longer-term markets like May 31 and June 30 saw smaller declines, which suggests traders still see a chance that negotiations recover on a longer timeline.

Trading volume on the April 22 contract is $610,678 in USDC. It takes $9,404 to move the odds 5 points, a thick order book. Still, sentiment shifts can trigger fast price swings; the market dropped 5 points within minutes during the sell-off.

Nabavian’s remarks expose how fragile the Islamabad talks are. At 19.5¢, buying YES on April 22 pays $1 if a deal materializes, a 5.1x return. That requires a diplomatic turnaround in four days.

Watch for Pakistan’s next move as mediator. Any shift from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi or a change in US strategy could swing these markets again.

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