3 in 4 Americans oppose war in Iran, pressuring Congress against escalation

Public sentiment is turning against the conflict. The odds of the US declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 6%, down from 8% a week ago.

Low public support for the war could push Congress away from a formal declaration. The April 30 market is nearly flat at 1%, with little expectation of imminent escalation. The term structure shows a 6-point jump from April 30 to December 31, which suggests traders price in a possible catalyst later in the year.

Volume tells the story. Actual USDC trading volume is low: $18 per day for December 31 and $719 for April 30. Order book depth indicates it would take $2,769 to move December’s odds by 5 percentage points, a sign of thick liquidity. The largest single move was a 1-point drop at 4:02 AM, likely a reaction to public opinion data.

This poll signals domestic pressure that could curb escalation. A YES share at 6¢ pays $1 if Congress declares war by year’s end, a 16.67x return. For that to make sense, you’d need to bet on a shift toward more aggressive policy.

Watch for Congressional statements and any moves by Trump or Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. If Congress voices strong opposition or Trump emphasizes diplomacy, expect further drops.

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