US-Iran ceasefire expires today with no new talks scheduled

The US-Iran ceasefire expires today with no scheduled next round of talks. Odds for the ceasefire ending by April 21 have risen to 4% YES, up from 3.8% yesterday.

The approaching expiration is moving several related markets. The April 30 ceasefire market sits at 36.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago. Traders are pricing in resumed hostilities if talks don’t proceed. The WTI Crude Oil prices market holds at 1% YES for hitting $160, with a potential naval blockade keeping supply disruption risk on the table.

Daily trading volume in the ceasefire markets is $54,670 in USDC, and just $841 is enough to shift odds by 5 points. The April 30 contract dropped 4 points over the past week, showing how thin liquidity amplifies each new signal. The oil price market trades $316 in daily USDC volume and requires over $2,000 to move odds by 5 points, a much thicker book.

Trump has said an extension of the ceasefire is “unlikely.” Combined with recent ceasefire violations, this puts conflict escalation squarely in play. At 30¢, a YES share on the April 30 ceasefire contract pays $1 if talks resume, a 3.33x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within 10 days.

Watch for CENTCOM statements or announcements of diplomatic interventions by Oman or Qatar. Any sign of resumed talks or softened rhetoric from either side could move these contracts fast.

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