Iran’s Revolutionary Guard sidelines president, strengthens regime control

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has sidelined President Masoud Pezeshkian, consolidating control over state functions. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 are now at 3.8% YES, down from 4% yesterday.

Increased military dominance by the IRGC, especially around new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, suggests a more fortified regime. This shift weighs on related markets like Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30, now at 5.5% YES. The December 31 sub-market sits at 15.5% YES, with traders skeptical of significant internal changes.

The fall of the Iranian regime by May 31 has dropped to 3.8% YES. This market trades $13,295 in USDC daily, showing solid interest but also pricing in the strengthened IRGC grip as a deterrent. With 41 days left, traders clearly expect regime resilience.

Liquidity is reasonable, with $13,024 needed to move the odds 5 points. The largest recent move was just 1 point, consistent with the stability that IRGC actions have reinforced.

This power consolidation is a genuine structural shift, not noise. The IRGC’s moves strengthen the perception of regime durability. For speculative traders, a YES share for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 at 6¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 16.6x return. But betting on regime change now looks increasingly precarious.

Watch for IRGC announcements or changes in leadership structure that could alter the current trajectory. The Supreme Leader’s next public appearance or a shift in military strategy could move these markets.

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