Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil supply

An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil supply, but the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 1% YES, down from 3% a week ago.

Market reaction

The blockade has halted roughly 10 million barrels per day, a record disruption affecting 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade. The WTI Crude Oil April 2026 market shows all sub-markets at identical 1% YES odds, meaning traders see very little chance of the price reaching $160 even with the blockade in place.

Daily trading volume is $316 against a face value of $20,174. It costs $2,188 to move the price by 5 points, so the market is thin and could shift quickly on a single large trade or new information, but right now there’s almost no activity.

Why it matters

The blockade is a major supply disruption, yet the market’s flat response at 1% suggests traders either expect a resolution or don’t believe the disruption will last long enough to push WTI anywhere near $160. A YES share at 1.2¢ pays $1 if WTI hits $160, a 83x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a sustained closure or a serious escalation beyond current conditions.

What to watch

OPEC+ announcements, any moves by Saudi Arabia or the UAE to reroute supply, and US Department of Energy updates on strategic reserve releases. Changes on any of these fronts would directly affect whether WTI approaches the $160 threshold.

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