Strong economic data dims April 2026 Fed rate cut expectations

Strong economic data led traders to reduce expectations for an April rate cut, with the odds for a 25 bps cut after the April 2026 meeting now at 0.4% YES, down from 1% a week ago. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s upcoming testimony adds another variable.

## Market reaction

In the Fed Rate Decisions market, the expectation for an April rate cut has nearly vanished. The 25 bps cut odds sit at 0.4% YES, while 50+ bps is at 0.1% YES. Face value trades at $775,834 daily, but only $2,888 in actual USDC shows where real money is going. It takes $6,752 to shift the odds by five points, indicating moderate liquidity.

## Why it matters

The Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 market has also moved: “no rate cuts happening in 2026” is at 34.8% YES, down from 41% a week ago. Traders are increasingly betting against cuts this year on the back of strong economic data. The largest single move was a 1-point drop at 8:03 PM, showing sensitivity to even minor data changes.

Trading volume over the past 24 hours was $4,038 in actual USDC. Order book depth requires $6,752 to move the April rate cut market five points. The largest price move in the last day was a 1-point shift, and the market has been relatively stable despite the news.

At 0.4¢, a YES share for a 25 bps cut pays $1 if it resolves, but you’d need strong conviction in a sudden economic reversal to justify the bet. Warsh’s testimony might clarify intentions, but without dovish signals, odds stay low.

## What to watch

Watch for Warsh’s testimony, particularly any comments on Fed independence or economic outlook. Statements from Fed Chair Powell or shifts in economic data could also move these markets.

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