Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely amid regional tensions

President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely. The market for military operations ending by April 30 sits at 17.0% YES, down from 20% yesterday and 40% a week ago.

Market reaction

The extension announcement produced a modest bump, though odds remain low. Face value over the last 24 hours is $216,266, with actual USDC volume at $34,213. A $9,110 trade is enough to shift the price 5 points, meaning larger orders can move this market significantly. Explore the market.

Why it matters

The indefinite ceasefire extension signals a pause in hostilities, but traders are skeptical about a formal end to military operations before May. Odds have dropped steadily because regional tensions involving Israel and the ongoing naval blockade complicate any resolution. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop from 18% to 16% at 12:09 AM.

What to watch

The ceasefire extension is a diplomatic step, but without concrete progress in negotiations or a formal peace proposal from Iran, traders are pricing in doubt. Buying YES at 17¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 5.88x return. That bet requires a significant diplomatic breakthrough within the next eight days.

Key catalysts: developments in Islamabad negotiations (particularly nuclear terms and sanctions), any intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, and statements from Rubio or CENTCOM on rhetoric or diplomatic direction.

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