Trump loses leverage in Iran talks, oil sanctions relief unlikely

Ian Bremmer claims Trump has lost all leverage in the Iran negotiations. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by April 30 have fallen to 17% YES, down from 26% just 24 hours ago.

The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market, which covers oil sanctions relief, dropped sharply. Volume is at $7,257 in USDC, with odds falling 9 percentage points in a single day. The order book is thin: just $416 to move the price 5 points, meaning even small trades can swing the market significantly.

The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market is barely alive. The April 22 contract settled at 0.1% YES. The April 30 contract sits at 15.5%, and the term structure only shows real confidence at the June 30 date, which trades at 62.5% YES. Traders are pricing in a long slog, not a quick deal.

Bremmer’s argument is specific: Iran’s leverage remains intact while Trump’s strategy is faltering. At 17¢, a YES share on oil sanctions relief pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 5.9x return. For that bet to work, you’d need a dramatic turnaround in negotiations within a week.

Watch for Trump’s communications, particularly new statements from the White House or his Truth Social account. Any shift in rhetoric or a surprise concession could move these contracts fast.

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