US-Israel strikes impact Hormuz shipping, market odds drop sharply

US-Israel strikes on Iran have pushed Strait of Hormuz shipping markets sharply lower. The market for 80 ships transiting the Strait by April 30 has dropped to 6.5% YES, down from 17% just 24 hours ago.

Traders are pricing in fewer ships passing through the chokepoint amid potential blockades. The US escorts through Hormuz market holds at 6.5% YES. The UK warships through Hormuz odds sit at 2.9% YES, suggesting traders doubt a coordinated military response.

Face value of trades across these markets is $73,386, with actual USDC volume at $8,953. The US escort market has a daily volume of $1,581, and it takes only $1,031 to move odds by 5 points, making it fragile to large trades.

The drop in shipping transit odds reflects a market consensus that military confrontation is replacing normal commercial operations in the Strait. A YES share in the 80 ships market at 6.5¢ pays $1 if resolved YES, a 15.4x return. That outcome would require rapid de-escalation or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for Admiral Brad Cooper’s updates from U.S. Central Command and any IRGC announcements on toll protocols or transit guidelines. Those will directly move these markets.

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