Iran’s IRGC seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump extends ceasefire

Iran’s IRGC has seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz following Trump’s ceasefire extension. The market for the UK sending warships through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 2.8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

The IRGC seizure has traders repricing the likelihood of a UK naval deployment to the strait. The odds dropped sharply, but the market is thin: USDC trading volume is $917/day across all sub-markets. The largest single move was a 2-point drop at 5:59 PM. The April 30 contract has just 7 days left until resolution.

The seizure raises risks to global shipping without directly targeting US or Israeli vessels, per the White House. Odds remain low for a UK naval response within the week. With only $200 needed to move the market by 5 points, any geopolitical development could cause outsized price swings.

For traders, buying YES at 3¢ pays $1 if the UK dispatches warships, a 33.3x return. That bet requires a rapid escalation or a deployment announcement from the UK Ministry of Defence within seven days.

Watch for signals from the UK Ministry of Defence or changes in IRGC naval activity. An official confirmation of warship deployments or a diplomatic shift could move this market fast.

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