Military advisers intentionally kept Trump out of the command room during a rescue operation in Iran, fearing his temper could jeopardize the mission, according to a Wall Street Journal report. On Polymarket, the likelihood of Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 has dropped, with the Trump’s End of Military Operations Against Iran market reflecting reduced confidence in his unilateral decision-making power.
The report also moved the Military Action Against Iran Ends market, with decreased odds of an imminent end to operations given ongoing military activities.
The market for Trump’s military operations end trades thinly, with $0 in face value over the past 24 hours. That illiquidity means a single significant order could produce large price swings. By contrast, the U.S. Forces Seizing Oil Tankers market sits at 99.9% YES with volume at $1,024,597 in actual USDC daily.
Trump’s exclusion from the command room reduces his perceived direct control over military operations, which lowers the probability of an end to hostilities by the market’s resolution dates. A YES share on Trump’s announcement by March 1 looks less attractive given the internal discord, unless new developments show a shift in who controls operational decisions.
Watch for statements from Trump or defense figures like Pete Hegseth or Gen. Dan Caine. Any public signals about whether internal tensions are easing or escalating will directly affect these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Be the first to comment