6 months to clear Strait of Hormuz mines, oil prices may stay high

The Pentagon’s six-month estimate to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices elevated through midterms. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 0.7% YES, down from 1% yesterday.

The prolonged disruption timeline has traders repricing oil risk. With the Pentagon estimating six months for clearance, the WTI Crude Oil market remains skeptical of a dramatic spike. Odds for WTI hitting $160 have dropped slightly to 0.7% YES, suggesting traders don’t expect supply constraints alone to push prices that high.

The market for traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz by end of April looks grim. The Pentagon’s timeline makes a quick resolution unlikely, and market pricing reflects that pessimism. A slow recovery in vessel traffic is the base case, consistent with the market odds.

Actual USDC traded for WTI Crude Oil markets is $514 per day, with volume of $49,622 per day at face value. Only $1,955 is required to move the odds by five points, making this market susceptible to volatility from relatively small trades. No major single-candle price jumps occurred in the past 24 hours, pointing to a lack of significant speculative activity.

The Pentagon’s estimate gives a concrete timeline, but the market isn’t pricing in an immediate crisis. At 0.7%, buying YES is a long-shot bet with substantial returns if oil prices spike unexpectedly. For traders, the variables to track are developments that could indicate further delay or escalation, such as an Iranian decision to re-mine the strait or other geopolitical shifts. Updates from the US Department of Defense or OPEC+ meetings that affect oil supply expectations could move these odds sharply as traders react to new information.

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