US, Israeli airstrikes target Tehran airport amid 2026 Iran conflict

U.S. and Israeli airstrikes hit Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran as part of the ongoing 2026 Iran war, pushing the Iranian regime fall market to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Mehrabad is a logistical hub for Iran’s military operations, and the strikes are part of a broader campaign to degrade that infrastructure. The Iranian regime fall market now trades at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ago. Daily face value is $385,189, though actual USDC traded is $30,969, with $26,254 needed to move the price 5 points.

The Reza Pahlavi entry into Iran by June 30 market is unchanged at 6.5% YES. Pahlavi has not been mentioned in connection with the current strikes, which explains the lack of movement.

The Mehrabad strike fits a pattern of targeting Iran’s logistical and proxy support networks rather than leadership directly. Without strikes on senior figures or visible internal unrest, the market reflects that distinction: odds are rising but remain single-digit. The regime’s ability to sustain operations under this kind of sustained infrastructure degradation is the open question.

A YES share in the regime fall market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 11.8x return. That bet requires either further destruction of regime capabilities or a leadership disruption that hasn’t happened yet.

Watch for strikes on senior Iranian officials or large-scale protests, either of which could move probabilities sharply. State media activity matters too: public appearances by key leaders or signs of regime consolidation would signal stability and likely push odds back down.

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