Trump has added a new stipulation to ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations: Iran must stop funding Hezbollah. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 dropped to
The demand complicates already difficult negotiations. The term structure for Iran agreeing to end enrichment shows a steep decline, with traders pricing in a likely impasse given just seven days remain. The market’s largest recent move was a 2-point drop at 6:29 PM, directly tied to Trump’s hardline position.
The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief also fell, sitting at 10% YES, down from 20% just 24 hours ago. The Hezbollah defunding demand signals a tougher U.S. stance, and traders have pulled back on expectations of concessions. With only $1,830 in actual USDC traded, it would take just $461 to move the odds by five percentage points, meaning this market is vulnerable to significant swings from small trades.
The market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium has seen no trading activity, which points to a lack of confidence in any near-term breakthrough. Trump’s new demands appear to stall broader negotiations, indirectly lowering the probability of the U.S. obtaining enriched uranium by May 31.
This additional red line could either pressure Iran into concessions or harden its current position. For traders eyeing a potential reversal, a YES share at 6¢ on ending uranium enrichment offers a
Watch for IAEA statements and White House announcements that could shift the trajectory of negotiations. Rafael Grossi’s next report or a Trump administration policy update would be the most likely catalysts.
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