US informs Israel ceasefire with Iran to end Sunday

The US has informed Israel that the ceasefire with Iran will end on Sunday. The likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by April 30, 2026, has dropped to 2% YES, down from 5% just 24 hours ago and from 40% a week ago.

The news has also moved the June 30 peace deal market, now at 12% YES, down from 14% yesterday. The 10-point spread between the April 30 and June 30 contracts suggests traders don’t expect a quick resolution. With just 7 days left on the April 30 market, the odds reflect little confidence in any imminent agreement.

Face value volumes are $19,047 for April and $10,439 for June, but actual USDC traded is much lower at $569 and $1,409 respectively. The April market can move 5 points on just $110, which shows how thin the order book is. A 2-point spike at 12:37 PM yesterday was the largest recent move, driven by a minor order.

The ceasefire ending is a setback, but the markets haven’t zeroed out. Traders are reacting to a direct signal that diplomatic progress has stalled. At 2¢, a YES share for a peace deal by April 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 50x return. That’s a steep bet that Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi can produce a deal in the next week.

Watch for surprise diplomatic moves, especially from third-party mediators like Pakistan, or statements from the US or Iran that might signal last-minute negotiation efforts.

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