Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin could reach $81,000 this month, while the market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0% YES.
Bitcoin’s recent rally past $77,000 followed Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which eased oil supply concerns. The de-escalation reduced the immediate risk of energy disruptions and boosted Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. Traders now price the odds of Bitcoin hitting $60,000 in April at virtually zero, a sharp reversal from earlier fears of a dip below $62,000.
## Market reaction
As geopolitical tensions cool, traders are watching Bitcoin’s trajectory for the rest of April. The forecast fits broader market sentiment expecting continued upward movement, particularly after $427 million in short liquidations. Kalshi traders’ bullish positioning further reduces the implied probability of a significant downturn.
## Why it matters
The market for Bitcoin’s potential dip to $60,000 in April currently shows no trading activity, meaning no one is betting on a bearish outcome. Order book depth and actual USDC traded are not reported, pointing to minimal action. This thin trading environment means even a small order could move the market significantly, though current positioning leans heavily bullish.
## What to watch
For traders, buying YES at a low price on a potential dip to $60,000 might look cheap, but the odds are stacked against it. Developments like further ceasefire extensions or major institutional moves are more likely to drive price action.
Watch for updates on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and any announcements from MicroStrategy or BlackRock. Either could shift Bitcoin’s price trajectory and reshape trading decisions on Kalshi.
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