Israel ready to resume airstrikes on Iran, awaits US approval

Israel signals readiness to resume airstrikes on Iran pending US approval. Odds of Iran surrendering its enriched uranium by April 30 sit at 6.7% YES.

Market reaction

The April 30 uranium surrender market was at 6% a day ago, down from 65% a week ago. Traders are skeptical Iran will concede under pressure. The June 30 contract holds at 29.5%.

Why it matters

The airstrike threat is dragging diplomatic meeting markets down with it. Odds for an April 24 meeting are at 0.7%. Traders have shifted to April 26, where odds are 31.4%. Total volume across all diplomatic meeting dates is just $1,042 in USDC.

What to watch

The Iranian regime fall market is quiet. April 30 odds are at 0.5%, with May at 2.9%. Airstrike threats could destabilize Iran, but traders see limited short-term impact.

The April 30 uranium surrender YES share trades at 7¢, a potential 14x payout. Buying YES here is a bet on diplomacy over escalation. The two variables that matter: whether the US greenlights Israeli strikes, and whether Netanyahu acts unilaterally without it.

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