An Iranian MP declared that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, and the market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 dropped to
Market reaction
The statement caused a sharp drop, and traders show little confidence in a swift resolution. The market’s largest move was a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM, a sign of volatility around updates. Volume sits at $36,459 in actual USDC daily, with $4,658 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. That combination of moderate liquidity and thin depth means the market is sensitive to large trades.
The April 30 traffic normalization market is also under pressure, though no current odds figure is available. With only six days left until that market’s resolution, the MP’s comments point to sustained tensions and ongoing disruptions that make a return to normal by month-end very unlikely.
Why it matters
The MP’s statement is a credible signal of continued instability. Middle East Eye, which reported the comments, carries tier 2 source credibility. No confirmed ceasefire, mine clearance, or other bullish catalysts have emerged to counter the bearish trend.
At 14.5¢, a YES share for May 15 pays $1 if resolved, a
What to watch
Announcements from CENTCOM or Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Any change in naval postures or blockade policies could shift market expectations quickly.
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