Structural gas demand destruction threatens global LNG market

The head of the Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum warned that structural gas demand destruction could reshape the global LNG market. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 contract sits at 1.0% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Market reaction

Strait of Hormuz closure risks and attacks on energy infrastructure have disrupted LNG supply, but crude prices haven’t reached new highs. The April 30 market holds at 1.0% YES, with $2,513 in daily USDC volume. A $695 order could shift this market by 5 percentage points, which tells you how thin the book is.

The WTI Crude Oil by April 2026 contract is at 0.5% YES on the $160 target. USDC volume there is $506, and it takes $1,632 to move the price 5 points, meaning slightly more resistance to a single large order.

Why it matters

Sustained LNG supply disruption hasn’t produced a crude price spike. Traders appear skeptical that current geopolitical disruptions will push oil to record levels, or they expect alternative supplies to fill the gap. But both contracts are so thinly traded that a relatively small position could dramatically change the odds if sentiment shifts.

What to watch

OPEC+ meetings and statements from Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister are the most likely catalysts. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions around energy infrastructure could move these contracts fast given their low liquidity.

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