US-Israeli airstrikes destroy Iran’s Pasteur Institute headquarters

US and Israeli airstrikes destroyed the headquarters of Iran’s Pasteur Institute. The market for Iran agreeing to surrender its uranium stockpile by April 30 dropped to 2% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The April 30 market’s collapse tracks the intensified conflict and narrowing diplomatic window. The June 30 market sits at 25.5% YES, down from 76% a week ago. The December 31 market holds at 40.5% YES.

The Iranian regime fall market ticked up to 8.5% YES from 8% yesterday. Targeting a major scientific institution raises the perceived risk of regime destabilization, though odds remain low.

Why it matters

The uranium surrender markets traded $57,314 in USDC over the past 24 hours. It takes $9,561 to move the April 30 market by five percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 1-point spike, and the market has otherwise flatlined.

What to watch

At 2¢, a YES share for uranium surrender by April 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 50x return. That bet requires a last-minute negotiation breakthrough that looks extremely unlikely given the current military escalation. Watch for any statements from Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, the US, or the IAEA on uranium discussions. Those are the signals that could move these markets.

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