Iran mines Strait of Hormuz, reroutes global shipping through national waters

Iran’s mining of the Strait of Hormuz forces global shipping through its national waters, attaching fees and penalties. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.

The May 15 market dropped sharply as Iran’s mining operation made continued disruptions more likely. The April 30 market for Iran targeting ships sits at 70.2% YES, up from 19% just a day ago.

The Strait of Hormuz market trades $36,459 USDC daily, with $4,658 needed to shift odds by 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point spike following Iran’s action. The ship targeting market requires just $101 to move 5 points, making it vulnerable to large trades.

Iran’s demand to route shipping through its waters weaponizes the chokepoint and works against any quick return to normal. Buying YES shares in the May 15 market at 15.5¢ offers a potential 6.45x return, but that requires believing in rapid de-escalation, which is hard to square with Iran’s current posture.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM’s General Michael Kurilla or signs of international diplomatic moves. A verified clearance of mines or resumed peace talks could shift odds. Without either, the May 15 normalization market stays low.

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