Germany’s Merz confirms partial mining of Strait of Hormuz, impacting ship transit

Germany’s Merz stated that the Strait of Hormuz is partially mined. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 is at 1% YES, down from 4% yesterday.

The announcement has traders pricing in increased navigational hazards. Odds for UK warships transiting the Strait by April 30 dropped to 1% YES, from 2% a day ago. With only six days left, both markets point toward minimal shipping and military transit through the Strait.

Trade volume is thin: only $449 in USDC traded daily for the ships transit market. It takes $542 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, so even small trades have outsized effects on pricing. The largest single price move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point drop, likely triggered by Merz’s statement.

Confirmed partial mining makes any significant increase in ship transit unlikely before the deadline. With odds at 1% for 80 ships transiting by April 30, traders are betting on continued disruption. Buying YES at 1¢ offers a potential 100x return, but that would require rapid de-escalation and mine-clearing operations within days.

Watch for announcements from U.S. Central Command and any changes in mine-clearing operations. Admiral Brad Cooper’s next update could clarify the timeline for securing safe passage through the Strait.

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